With questions surrounding the viabilityand long-term future of the tobacco industry, Euromonitor International isreleasing a global report on the projected tobacco industry in 2050. The Futureof Tobacco report examines the long-term prospects for the industry and isbased on the company’s ongoing global tobacco research program in over 80markets world-wide. The report indicates that despite declining consumption indeveloped markets, world cigarette volumes will increase over the next fewdecades due to rising consumption in China. Asia Pacific, driven by China, ispredicted to increase its share of the global cigarette market to over half ofvolume sales.

 

Strict regulation on the tobacco industryalong with increasing taxation continues to put pressure on volume sales oftobacco products in more developed markets like the US, Western Europe andJapan. Although Chinawill pay lip service to tobacco control, population growth forecasts mitigateany fall in smoking prevalence, even in the long term. In fact, tobacco userswill remain at a billion by 2050, according to Euromonitor’s report.

 

Manufacturers are seeking to offset volumedeclines in developed markets by a process of premium. "We’re seeingmanufacturers innovate their so-called global flagship brands, chiefly theirpremium international offerings, in order to maintain profits and stave offdown-trading," says Zora Milenkovic, Euromonitor’s Head of Global TobaccoResearch. "Innovation - or ’premium’ - is most evident in pack design, typeand size as well as special filters and cigarettes," she adds. Premium isthreatened by the prospect of plain packaging legislation being adopted indeveloped markets.

 

In overall equivalent volumes, the worldtobacco products market is forecast to contract by about 7% between 2015 and2050, because of a 9% fall in cigarette volume sales. Other combustiblecategories are forecast to record volume rises, due to the niche appeal of theproducts, the perception that they are less dangerous than cigarettes, theprice advantage of some segments of cigars, the growth of cigars in China, and theprice advantage of Roll Your Own.

 

The concept of reduced harm tobaccoproducts is expected to pick up pace as innovation in non-combustible,cigarette mimicking nicotine delivery devices are developed by cigarettecompanies. The e-cigarette and the nicotine aerosol cigarette will lead thenicotine delivery market over the long-term, according to Euromonitor’s reportThe Future of Tobacco.

 

By 2050, Euromonitor International expects thenovel nicotine delivery device market (including e-cigarettes) to be equal invalue size to the whole other tobacco products market. Meanwhile, the globalmarket research company expects cigarettes to continue to dominate the worldtobacco industry.